Follow the Puck: When AI Meets the Real Economy
In the last few blogs, I’ve traced the arc of automation — from agentive AI that handles your emails and calendar, to in-home robots that might soon tidy your living room, to factory humanoids like BMW’s Figure 02 and Tesla’s Optimus that are already punching the clock. The through-line is clear: technology isn’t just digitizing tasks anymore; it’s reshaping the very foundation of how the economy works. Wayne Gretzky famously said he skated to where the puck was going, not where it had been — and as a portfolio manager, I try to invest the same way. Understanding where technology is moving helps reveal where the next economic plays will unfold.
Agentive AI is already rewriting white-collar work. Tasks once handled by assistants, analysts, and associates are quietly being absorbed by software that doesn’t need benefits, vacations, or sleep. Meanwhile, in the physical world, robots are moving, lifting, sensing, and adapting with increasing finesse. What once looked like separate trends — cognitive automation and mechanical automation — are converging into one continuous wave of capability. The machine that books your meeting and the one that bolts your BMW panel are chapters of the same story.
That story is starting to bend the larger economy. Productivity is likely to surge, but labor participation may not. Wages could stagnate in some sectors while profits soar in others. The result is a widening gap between capital and labor — a divide that’s been growing for decades and may now accelerate. The question, of course, is whether this change will eliminate jobs or simply transform them. When cars replaced horses, entire industries vanished — but others were born. Will AI and robotics follow that same cycle of creative destruction, or are we entering something fundamentally different? The honest answer: we don’t yet know.
That uncertainty naturally leads to speculation about what happens if new industries don’t appear quickly enough to absorb the labor being displaced. Even Elon Musk — hardly a socialist — has said he believes a Universal Basic Income will eventually be necessary as automation advances. Whether that becomes policy is anyone’s guess, but the discussion itself underscores how transformative this shift could be. The pace at which automation scales will determine how capital, consumption, and productivity interact — and how resilient the broader economy remains during that adjustment.
What’s clear is that the structure of the economy is evolving. Productivity boosts from automation and AI are estimated to lift national GDP by roughly 1.5% by 2035 and nearly 3% by 2055. Meanwhile, labor’s share of output continues to shrink, while capital’s share — embodied in technology, intellectual property, and automated infrastructure — expands. That dynamic favors companies building and deploying automation: semiconductor makers, robotics firms, cloud platforms, and the energy networks that power them. It also invites a closer look at job creation: entry-level computer-programming roles are showing declines, but the rise of roles requiring hybrid skills — such as crafting effective AI prompts or managing human-machine workflows — are gaining traction. In other words, while some traditional jobs may fade, new ones tied to higher-order supervision, adaptation, and integration with machines will likely emerge. For investors, the takeaway is that the growth phase may reward firms and sectors that not only replace human tasks but create the enabling platforms — and that productivity gains may translate into higher margins, scale, and returns for those positioned ahead of the puck.
For investors, that’s where Gretzky’s advice applies. You can’t skate to where the puck was — the jobs, industries, and balance sheets of yesterday. You have to anticipate where the economy is going, not where it’s been. That means allocating capital toward the technologies and infrastructures enabling automation, while keeping a disciplined eye on productivity, cost curves, and profitability.
Whether the next decade delivers new industries or an economy increasingly driven by machines, one thing is certain: the puck is already moving. The challenge — and the opportunity — is keeping up with it.